2013 was another year predicted to be a busy season, but it seems that the predictions were wildly off.
The only named storm that threatened hit continental US was expected to be TS Karen, which stalled as a CAT1 off the coast of Louisianna but weakened to be reported as no more than a “cluster of showers and thunderstorms” as it moved across the Florida Panhandle. (Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml Correct at time of post)
Reports seen indicated that the experts now say the conditions “were less than favourable” which does bring into question how accurately these predictions can be taken to be. Of course not predicting a bad season and then having one will result in much more complaints than predicting one that never materialises, but it does make for issues around planning.
The lack of accuracy in the predictions also create Cry Wolf situation, if you are constantly predicting bad seasons and nothing happens then the relevance of the predictions lose some gravitas. Of course people then become a little complacent, don’t prepare quite so well and don’t necessarily heed the warnings…….
Forecasts and predictions are exactly that, and it must be extremely difficult for weather forecasters to see what is actually going to happen months down the line when they don’t seem to accurately predict what will happen in three days.
Unless that is if you are in Florida, where the weather is actually fairly predictable – warm and sunny – well, at least during the day anyway.
See more on our weather pages.